Zapad 2025 Reveals Moscow’s Eye on Emerging Arctic Shipping Lanes
Russia and Belarus begin Zapad-2025, their first Zapad—meaning “West”—series military exercise since the invasion of Ukraine. The last iteration, scheduled for 2023, was quietly cancelled amid troop and equipment shortages.
This year’s drills, held in Belarus, simulate offensive and defensive operations against NATO forces and strategic positions, with the stated aim of improving state co-operation and testing readiness.
While Russia claims troop numbers will not exceed the 13,000 cap set by the OSCE’s Vienna Document, Latvian intelligence estimates actual participation will reach upwards of 150,000.
The EU Parliament has warned that scenarios may include tactical nuclear weapons or ‘accidental’ incursions into EU territory. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief has suggested the drills could serve as cover for further aggression.
The exercise comes amid heightened regional tension. Poland and the Baltic states have launched counter-drills. NATO’s June summit pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP— Zapad offers a timely reminder of why.
Capturing Shipping Lanes
Despite experts stating that Russia is in no fighting shape with troops and munitions spread thin, Putin’s acts of military power point to what the Kremlin wants most from Europe.
As ice melts around the Arctic, regional powers have been scrambling to make claims to the shipping lanes that become available in the new bodies of water. Russian coastal defence drills during Zapad included missile launches in the High Arctic, a signal that Moscow intends to project power far beyond its western land border. By practicing the rapid deployment of long-range systems along remote archipelagos, Russia is showing it can threaten or close northern sea routes at short notice.
For future trade this matters more than the weaponry itself. The High North is emerging as a faster, cheaper alternative to the Suez or Panama for Europe–Asia traffic, but only if it remains reliably open. Military activity raises insurance premiums and complicates navigation plans, making commercial operators think twice before committing to new routes. It also gives Russia leverage in any dispute over transit rights, since the mere announcement of exercises can delay or reroute shipping.
The Zapad drills therefore highlight a strategic contest that is as much about economics as security. As melting ice draws more cargo northward, the ability to secure—or to disrupt—those lanes will shape the cost and speed of global trade. Europe and its partners will need to decide whether to invest in alternative infrastructure and naval presence, or risk ceding a critical shortcut to Moscow’s coercive influence.